Sevilla 5-3 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sevilla welcome Levante to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Sevilla have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 outings — a 2.12 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 0.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.38 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.12 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Levante — All Games: 0W 5D 4L from 9 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.56 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levante have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Sevilla have the edge — a 1.56 PPG advantage (2.12 vs 0.56) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Levante trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sevilla 25% | Levante 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 25% | Levante 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.70 xG and Levante 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.307 / defence 0.970 | Levante attack 0.638 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 0.969. Sevilla carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Sevilla games / 9 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 63% | Draw 25% | Levante 12%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 33% | Levante 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 63% | Draw 25% | Levante 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 38% | xG Sevilla 1.70 / Levante 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.307 / def 0.970 | Levante attack 0.638 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.014 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Levante xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Levante kick off?
Sevilla vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Levante?
Sevilla 5 - 3 Levante.
Where is Sevilla vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Levante part of?
Sevilla vs Levante is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 63% chance of winning, Levante a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sevilla and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sevilla and Levante in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.38 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Levante (all comps): 0W-5D-4L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
63%
1.58
25%
4.04
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.30
0.60
Levante xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
2%
46.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.60 for Levante, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 2D 1L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.62 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sevilla's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 0.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Levante in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Levante away?
Sevilla's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 3.00 PPG; Levante away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Levante in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levante have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2026, when Levante won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sevilla
0
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Levante have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Levante 2-0 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sevilla 33% BTTS, Levante 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sevilla) and 33% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Levante in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sevilla's recent matches and 33% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Sevilla's recent games and 33% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Levante tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levante in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Levante 5-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.70 xG and Levante 0.60 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levante outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.31 / defence 0.97 against Levante attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 63% | Draw 25% | Levante 12%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 25%, Levante 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.