Sevilla 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Friday 29 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sevilla have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sevilla against 1.30 for Cadiz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sevilla lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 48% versus Cadiz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 33% | Cadiz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.44 xG and Cadiz 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.310 / defence 1.159 | Cadiz attack 0.660 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.149. Sevilla carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Sevilla games / 33 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 23%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 4.35. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 60% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Sevilla 1.44 / Cadiz 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.310 / def 1.159 | Cadiz attack 0.660 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cadiz xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Cadiz kick off?
Sevilla vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Sevilla vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Cadiz part of?
Sevilla vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 50% chance of winning, Cadiz a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sevilla and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 1.31x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.66x) against Sevilla's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.73
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.32
0.88
Cadiz xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.88 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla come into this having played 33 games, going 17W 12D 4L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (6W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sevilla's home form reads 11W 4D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.88 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 17W 12D 4L in their last 33 games (1.91 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 6W 13D 14L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Cadiz away?
Sevilla's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 2.31 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sevilla
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 56%, Cadiz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sevilla) and 44% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cadiz in 38%; Cadiz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sevilla's recent matches and 44% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sevilla's recent games and 44% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Cadiz tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla and Cadiz finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.44 xG and Cadiz 0.88 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.31 / defence 1.16 against Cadiz attack 0.66 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 23%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 33%, Cadiz 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.