Sevilla 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sevilla at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Almeria travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sevilla stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sevilla 1.40 PPG, Almeria 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sevilla have won 0, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Almeria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Almeria in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 67% and Almeria 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 50% | Almeria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 2.39 xG and Almeria 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.095 / defence 1.134 | Almeria attack 0.903 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 0.967. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.588 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sevilla games / 24 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 68% | Draw 18% | Almeria 14%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Almeria 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sevilla 50% | Almeria 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 68% | Draw 18% | Almeria 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Sevilla 2.39 / Almeria 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.095 / def 1.134 | Almeria attack 0.903 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.373 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Almeria xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Almeria kick off?
Sevilla vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Almeria?
Sevilla 2 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Sevilla vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Almeria part of?
Sevilla vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 68% chance of winning, Almeria a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sevilla and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Sevilla 0W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Almeria in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Almeria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 1.09x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
68%
1.46
18%
5.65
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.38
0.99
Almeria xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.65
18%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
9%
10.88
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
1%
77.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.99 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 7D 11L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 7W 4D 13L from 24 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.04 PPG, Almeria on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 3D 8L from 11 away games — 0.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Almeria in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Almeria have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Almeria away?
Sevilla's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.27 PPG; Almeria away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2023, when Sevilla won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Almeria?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 46%, Almeria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sevilla) and 46% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Sevilla have failed to score in 27% of games; Almeria in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sevilla's recent matches and 54% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sevilla's recent games and 46% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Almeria tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Almeria in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Almeria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Almeria 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 2.39 xG and Almeria 0.99 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Almeria attack 0.90 / defence 1.59, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 68% | Draw 18% | Almeria 14%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 50%, Almeria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.04 PPG, Almeria 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.