Real Sociedad 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Sociedad vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Osasuna travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Real Sociedad — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Reale Arena, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Reale Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Real Sociedad have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have won 2, Osasuna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 40% versus Osasuna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 35% | Osasuna 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.08 xG and Osasuna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.904 / defence 1.000 | Osasuna attack 0.918 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.085. Data: 52 Real Sociedad games / 52 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 36% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 50% | Osasuna 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 36% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Real Sociedad 1.08 / Osasuna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.904 / def 1.000 | Osasuna attack 0.918 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Real Sociedad 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna part of?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 36% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Real Sociedad and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Real Sociedad 2W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Sociedad's attack at 0.90x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.05
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.08
0.99
Osasuna xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.99 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 13D 14L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 19W 13D 20L from 52 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Sociedad on 1.69 PPG, Osasuna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Osasuna away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.72 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 6, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Real Sociedad 28% BTTS, Osasuna 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Real Sociedad and 32% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 28% of games; Osasuna in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 32% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 2-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.08 xG and Osasuna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Osasuna attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 36% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 31%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 35%, Osasuna 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.69 PPG, Osasuna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.