Real Sociedad 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Mallorca meet at Reale Arena in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Sociedad have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Reale Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Real Sociedad's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Real Sociedad, 0 for Mallorca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 40% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 36% | Mallorca 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.42 xG and Mallorca 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 1.033 / defence 0.942 | Mallorca attack 0.929 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.163. Data: 47 Real Sociedad games / 47 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Mallorca 3.70. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Real Sociedad 1.42 / Mallorca 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 1.033 / def 0.942 | Mallorca attack 0.929 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Mallorca kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Mallorca kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca part of?
Real Sociedad vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 46% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Real Sociedad and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Real Sociedad 2W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Mallorca in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (1.03) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.93x) against Real Sociedad's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.75
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.44
1.02
Mallorca xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.02 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 23W 12D 12L from 47 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 23L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 12W 6D 5L from 23 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 4W 5D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Mallorca away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.83 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Mallorca in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 7, Mallorca have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Mallorca?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 26%, Mallorca 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Real Sociedad and 48% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 26% of games; Mallorca in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 48% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 48% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Mallorca tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.42 xG and Mallorca 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 27%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 36%, Mallorca 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.