Real Sociedad 1-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Real Sociedad take on Levante.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Real Sociedad welcome Levante to Reale Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Real Sociedad have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante — All Games: 0W 2D 0L from 2 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 0.85 xG and Levante 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.961 / defence 1.047 | Levante attack 0.879 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 0.760 / away 0.805. Data: 2 Real Sociedad games / 2 Levante games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 32% | Draw 43% | Levante 25%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 3.12 | Draw 2.33 | Levante 4.00. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Levante's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 32% | Draw 43% | Levante 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG Real Sociedad 0.85 / Levante 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.961 / def 1.047 | Levante attack 0.879 / def 1.170 | league avg home 0.760 / away 0.805 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Levante xG
34%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Levante kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Levante kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Levante?
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Levante.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Levante part of?
Real Sociedad vs Levante is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 32% chance of winning, Levante a 25% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Real Sociedad and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Sociedad and Levante in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. Levante (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Real Sociedad's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
43%
2.33
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
1.60
0.74
Levante xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.33
43%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 15.0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.74 for Levante, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Sociedad come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Real Sociedad, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levante sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante in 100%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Levante in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Real Sociedad or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Levante in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Real Sociedad 2-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Levante?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Real Sociedad's games and 100% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Sociedad vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 50% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Levante tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Levante in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Levante 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Levante 1-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 0.85 xG and Levante 0.74 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Levante attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 32% | Draw 43% | Levante 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 50%, Levante 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Real Sociedad conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levante managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.