Real Madrid 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu plays host to Real Madrid versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Real Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Madrid have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Osasuna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Real Madrid's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Osasuna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Real Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 57% versus Osasuna 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 66% | Osasuna 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 1.72 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.463 / defence 0.882 | Osasuna attack 0.840 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.256. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Real Madrid games / 44 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 56% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Osasuna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 30% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 56% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Real Madrid 1.72 / Osasuna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.463 / def 0.882 | Osasuna attack 0.840 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Osasuna xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Madrid vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Real Madrid 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Madrid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Osasuna part of?
Real Madrid vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 56% chance of winning, Osasuna a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Real Madrid and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Real Madrid 1W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Osasuna in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Real Madrid's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.84x) against Real Madrid's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.21
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
2.65
0.93
Osasuna xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
27.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.93 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Real Madrid come into this having played 44 games, going 32W 8D 4L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Real Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.34 PPG from 44 outings (16W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Real Madrid's home form reads 15W 5D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Madrid are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 32W 8D 4L in their last 44 games (2.36 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Osasuna away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.38 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Madrid have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Madrid
3
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 6, Osasuna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 43%, Osasuna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Real Madrid) and 33% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Osasuna in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 33% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Real Madrid's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Madrid and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 7, as Real Madrid and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.72 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.46 / defence 0.88 against Osasuna attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 56% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 20%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 66%, Osasuna 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.