Real Madrid 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Madrid at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Madrid vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu plays host to Real Madrid versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 2D 1L from 9 games (2.22 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Madrid have posted 2W 1D 0L at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 3.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 0D 0L from 4 away outings — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.22 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Osasuna in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games; Over 3.5 in 44%.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Madrid 78% and Osasuna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Real Madrid 78% | Osasuna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.05 xG and Osasuna 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.591 / defence 1.129 | Osasuna attack 1.312 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.591 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Osasuna have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Real Madrid games / 10 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 48% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Osasuna 3.33. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 67% | Osasuna 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 48% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Real Madrid 2.05 / Osasuna 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.591 / def 1.129 | Osasuna attack 1.312 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Osasuna xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Madrid vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Real Madrid 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Real Madrid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Osasuna part of?
Real Madrid vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 48% chance of winning, Osasuna a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Real Madrid and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Madrid and Osasuna in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Real Madrid's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.31x) against Real Madrid's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.43
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.64
1.59
Osasuna xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.59 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Real Madrid come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 2D 1L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.22 PPG for Real Madrid against 1.89 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Real Madrid's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Madrid are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Osasuna in 67%.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.33 PPG; Osasuna away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Madrid have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Madrid
3
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 6, Osasuna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Osasuna?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Real Madrid, 67% for Osasuna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Real Madrid and 67% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%; Real Madrid have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Real Madrid's games and 67% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Madrid vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Real Madrid's matches and 67% of Osasuna's.
Do Real Madrid and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Real Madrid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 11, as Real Madrid and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.05 xG and Osasuna 1.59 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.59 / defence 1.13 against Osasuna attack 1.31 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 48% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 30%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 78%, Osasuna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Madrid 2.22 PPG, Osasuna 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.