Real Madrid 2-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Madrid host Cadiz at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's home record at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu: 7W 3D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 0, Cadiz 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cadiz trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 59% versus Cadiz 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 65% | Cadiz 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.34 xG and Cadiz 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.462 / defence 0.899 | Cadiz attack 0.717 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.112. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Real Madrid games / 51 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 74% | Draw 17% | Cadiz 10%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Cadiz 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 60% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 74% | Draw 17% | Cadiz 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 46% | xG Real Madrid 2.34 / Cadiz 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.462 / def 0.899 | Cadiz attack 0.717 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cadiz xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Real Madrid vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Cadiz part of?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 74% chance of winning, Cadiz a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Real Madrid and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Real Madrid 0W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Madrid's attack rating (1.46) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
74%
1.36
17%
6.02
10%
10.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.05
0.72
Cadiz xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
10.33
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
10%
10.35
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
1%
106.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.72 for Cadiz, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Madrid's recent record stands at 36W 10D 5L from 51 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 10W 20D 21L across 51 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Real Madrid have managed 17W 7D 1L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Madrid are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.84 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 36W 10D 5L in their last 51 games (2.31 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 10W 20D 21L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Cadiz away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.32 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Real Madrid
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 4, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 52%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Real Madrid) and 40% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cadiz in 36%; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Real Madrid's recent games and 40% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Cadiz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Cadiz 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.34 xG and Cadiz 0.72 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.46 / defence 0.90 against Cadiz attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 74% | Draw 17% | Cadiz 10%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 65%, Cadiz 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.