Real Madrid 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Madrid host Cadiz at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's home record at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu: 6W 2D 0L from 8 La Liga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cadiz trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Madrid 65% and Cadiz 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 65% | Cadiz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.32 xG and Cadiz 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.333 / defence 0.873 | Cadiz attack 0.836 / defence 1.602. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.124. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.602 — this is suppressing Real Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Real Madrid games / 17 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 71% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 11%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Cadiz 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 50% | Cadiz 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 71% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Real Madrid 2.32 / Cadiz 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.333 / def 0.873 | Cadiz attack 0.836 / def 1.602 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cadiz xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Real Madrid 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Real Madrid vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Cadiz part of?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 71% chance of winning, Cadiz a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Real Madrid and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Madrid's attack rating (1.33) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
71%
1.42
18%
5.49
11%
8.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.14
0.82
Cadiz xG
1.42
71%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
8.97
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
91.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.82 for Cadiz, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Madrid's recent record stands at 13W 3D 1L from 17 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 8L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Real Madrid have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Madrid are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.88 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 13W 3D 1L in their last 17 games (2.47 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Cadiz away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.50 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Real Madrid
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 4, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 50%, Cadiz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Real Madrid) and 62% (Cadiz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Real Madrid's games and 62% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Madrid vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Real Madrid's matches and 62% of Cadiz's.
Do Real Madrid and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Real Madrid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 18, as Real Madrid and Cadiz drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.32 xG and Cadiz 0.82 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Cadiz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Cadiz attack 0.84 / defence 1.60, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 71% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 11%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 65%, Cadiz 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.