Real Madrid 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Alaves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with Real Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 58% versus Alaves 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 58% | Alaves 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.20 xG and Alaves 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.167 / defence 0.894 | Alaves attack 0.730 / defence 1.687. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.173. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.687 — this is suppressing Real Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Real Madrid games / 24 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 69% | Draw 20% | Alaves 11%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Alaves 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 40% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 69% | Draw 20% | Alaves 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Real Madrid 2.20 / Alaves 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.167 / def 0.894 | Alaves attack 0.730 / def 1.687 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Alaves xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
Real Madrid vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid 3 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Real Madrid vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Alaves part of?
Real Madrid vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 69% chance of winning, Alaves a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Real Madrid and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Real Madrid 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Real Madrid's attack at 1.17x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.69x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
69%
1.44
20%
4.99
11%
9.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
2.97
0.77
Alaves xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
9.38
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
1%
84.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.77 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Madrid come into this having played 24 games, going 16W 6D 2L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Madrid's home form reads 7W 4D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.45 points per game from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Madrid are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.79 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 16W 6D 2L in their last 24 games (2.25 PPG), while Alaves have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Alaves away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.27 PPG; Alaves away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Alaves in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Madrid and Alaves runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Real Madrid
0
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 8, Alaves have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 46%, Alaves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Real Madrid) and 54% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Real Madrid have failed to score in 27% of games; Alaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 46% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Real Madrid's recent games and 54% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Alaves tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Alaves in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 3-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.20 xG and Alaves 0.77 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.69, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 69% | Draw 20% | Alaves 11%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Alaves 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.