Real Betis 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Real Betis take on Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Cadiz at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Real Betis 1.00 PPG, Cadiz 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 0.95 xG and Cadiz 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Cadiz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 0.992. Data: 1 Real Betis games / 1 Cadiz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Real Betis 30% | Draw 40% | Cadiz 31%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | Cadiz 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 30% | Draw 40% | Cadiz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Real Betis 0.95 / Cadiz 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Cadiz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.841 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cadiz xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Betis vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Real Betis 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Real Betis vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Cadiz part of?
Real Betis vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 30% chance of winning, Cadiz a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Real Betis and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in?
Real Betis (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.98) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
40%
2.52
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Real Betis xG
Total xG
1.92
0.97
Cadiz xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.97 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Betis come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Betis on 1.00 PPG, Cadiz on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Real Betis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Cadiz in 100%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Betis and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Real Betis
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Cadiz?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Real Betis's games and 100% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Betis vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Real Betis's recent games and 0% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis and Cadiz finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 0.95 xG and Cadiz 0.97 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Cadiz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 30% | Draw 40% | Cadiz 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 0%, Cadiz 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.00 PPG, Cadiz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.