Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Rayo Vallecano take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sevilla make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio de Vallecas — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Sevilla are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 0W, Sevilla 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rayo Vallecano half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 38% versus Sevilla 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 42% | Sevilla 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 0.71 xG and Sevilla 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.798 / defence 1.065 | Sevilla attack 0.661 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.115. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sevilla's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 26 Rayo Vallecano games / 27 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 28% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 33%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Sevilla 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Rayo Vallecano's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 30% | Sevilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 28% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Rayo Vallecano 0.71 / Sevilla 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.798 / def 1.065 | Sevilla attack 0.661 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sevilla xG
29%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 28% chance of winning, Sevilla a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sevilla (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.80) and Sevilla's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.66x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.49
0.78
Sevilla xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.5 | 17.7 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.1%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.78 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 9W 4D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 14W 10D 2L from 26 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayo Vallecano.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 4W 7D 2L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.38 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 14W 10D 2L in their last 26 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Sevilla away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 2.00 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sevilla in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sevilla won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rayo Vallecano
5
Draws
4
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Sevilla have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Rayo Vallecano) and 38% (Sevilla) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Rayo Vallecano and 8% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sevilla in 54%; Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 31% of games; Sevilla in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 38% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 8% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.71 xG and Sevilla 0.78 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Sevilla attack 0.66 / defence 0.77, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 28% | Draw 39% | Sevilla 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 42%, Sevilla 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.