Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to Estadio de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio de Vallecas — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Vallecas. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rayo Vallecano) versus 1.00 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Osasuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 41% versus Osasuna 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Osasuna 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.08 xG and Osasuna 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.012 / defence 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.760 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.065. Data: 22 Rayo Vallecano games / 23 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Osasuna 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Osasuna 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.08 / Osasuna 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.012 / def 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.760 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Osasuna xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 1.01x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
42%
2.39
36%
2.77
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.80
0.72
Osasuna xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.72 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 9W 4D 9L from 22 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 8L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.41 PPG, Osasuna on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osasuna's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Osasuna away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 2.36 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osasuna in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Osasuna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
6
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Osasuna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rayo Vallecano 36% BTTS, Osasuna 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rayo Vallecano) and 27% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Osasuna in 36%; Osasuna in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 27% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 27% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osasuna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 0-3 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.08 xG and Osasuna 0.72 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Osasuna attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 36% | Osasuna 22%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Osasuna 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.41 PPG, Osasuna 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.