Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Villarreal have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Osasuna 1W, Villarreal 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 35% versus Villarreal 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 35% | Villarreal 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.76 xG and Villarreal 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.697 / defence 1.358 | Villarreal attack 1.036 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.132. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Osasuna games / 26 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 16% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 56%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Villarreal 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Villarreal 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 16% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 0.76 / Villarreal 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.697 / def 1.358 | Villarreal attack 1.036 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Villarreal xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Villarreal kick off?
Osasuna vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Osasuna vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Villarreal part of?
Osasuna vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 16% chance of winning, Villarreal a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Villarreal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.70x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.04x) against Osasuna's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
16%
6.13
28%
3.61
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.35
1.59
Villarreal xG
6.13
16%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
30.08
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.59 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 8W 8D 10L from 26 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 6L across 26 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Osasuna against 1.62 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 2W 5D 5L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.81 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Villarreal in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.92 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Villarreal in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 50%, Villarreal 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osasuna) and 33% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Villarreal in 33%; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Villarreal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Osasuna's recent matches and 42% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Villarreal tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.76 xG and Villarreal 1.59 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.70 / defence 1.36 against Villarreal attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 16% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 56%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 35%, Villarreal 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Villarreal's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.23 PPG, Villarreal 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.