Osasuna 2-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Valladolid at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 1.40 PPG versus Valladolid's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Valladolid in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Valladolid 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 27% | Valladolid 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.61 xG and Valladolid 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.883 / defence 0.990 | Valladolid attack 0.833 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.149. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Osasuna games / 11 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Valladolid 4.55. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Valladolid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Osasuna 1.61 / Valladolid 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.883 / def 0.990 | Valladolid attack 0.833 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Valladolid xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valladolid kick off?
Osasuna vs Valladolid kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Valladolid?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Osasuna vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valladolid part of?
Osasuna vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 53% chance of winning, Valladolid a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Osasuna and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Valladolid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Valladolid (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.01
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.55
0.95
Valladolid xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.95 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.55 PPG, Valladolid on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Valladolid away?
Osasuna's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.80 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Valladolid 2-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valladolid?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 40%, Valladolid 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Osasuna) and 60% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valladolid in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Osasuna's recent matches and 60% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Osasuna's recent games and 60% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Valladolid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valladolid 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.61 xG and Valladolid 0.95 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valladolid landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Valladolid attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 27%, Valladolid 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Valladolid's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.55 PPG, Valladolid 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.