Osasuna 1-4 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Osasuna take on Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 La Liga matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.33. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valencia are 0.66 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.67), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Valencia trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Osasuna 33% | Valencia 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 33% | Valencia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.75 xG and Valencia 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.716 / defence 0.958 | Valencia attack 0.864 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.906 / away 0.905. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Osasuna games / 3 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 43% | Valencia 29%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.45 | Draw 2.33 | Valencia 3.45. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 33% | Valencia 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 43% | Valencia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 31% | xG Osasuna 0.75 / Valencia 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.716 / def 0.958 | Valencia attack 0.864 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.906 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Valencia xG
31%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valencia kick off?
Osasuna vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Osasuna 1 - 4 Valencia.
Where is Osasuna vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valencia part of?
Osasuna vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 29% chance of winning, Valencia a 29% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Osasuna and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-W. Valencia (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.72) and Valencia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (15.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.50
43%
2.34
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.50
0.75
Valencia xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.4 | 16.8 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.75 for Valencia, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Valencia in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Valencia have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Osasuna or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Valencia in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Osasuna 33% BTTS, Valencia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Osasuna and 33% for Valencia.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Valencia in 67%; Osasuna have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Osasuna's recent matches and 33% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Valencia tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Valencia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valencia run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Osasuna 1-4 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.75 xG and Valencia 0.75 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Valencia outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.72 / defence 0.96 against Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 29% | Draw 43% | Valencia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 33%, Valencia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Valencia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.