Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sevilla — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sevilla haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.40 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Sevilla and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Sevilla 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 37% | Sevilla 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.09 xG and Sevilla 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.887 / defence 1.070 | Sevilla attack 0.977 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.085. Data: 38 Osasuna games / 38 Sevilla games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Sevilla 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 40% | Sevilla 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Osasuna 1.09 / Sevilla 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.887 / def 1.070 | Sevilla attack 0.977 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sevilla xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 33% chance of winning, Sevilla a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.89) and Sevilla's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.13
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.23
1.14
Sevilla xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.14 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 11D 15L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. Osasuna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sevilla's form line: 18W 16D 4L from 38 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. Sevilla haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 6W 10D 3L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.39 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Pre-Season
Sevilla
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 18W 16D 4L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.16 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sevilla in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 47%, Sevilla 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Osasuna and 10% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sevilla in 42%; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Sevilla in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osasuna's recent matches and 47% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Osasuna's recent games and 10% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Sevilla 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Sevilla 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.09 xG and Sevilla 1.14 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Sevilla attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 33% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 35%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 37%, Sevilla 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.