Osasuna 0-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio El Sadar this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 50% versus Real Sociedad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 42% | Real Sociedad 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.97 xG and Real Sociedad 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.727 / defence 1.306 | Real Sociedad attack 1.178 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.083. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Osasuna games / 12 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 20% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 52%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Real Sociedad 1.92. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Real Sociedad 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 20% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Osasuna 0.97 / Real Sociedad 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.727 / def 1.306 | Real Sociedad attack 1.178 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Real Sociedad xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad part of?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 20% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osasuna and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.73) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
20%
4.95
28%
3.61
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.63
1.67
Real Sociedad xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
4%
26.23
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.67 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 1L across 12 games — 2.08 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osasuna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.58 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.42 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Real Sociedad in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.00 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Real Sociedad runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 50%, Real Sociedad 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osasuna) and 50% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 33%; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Osasuna's games and 67% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.97 xG and Real Sociedad 1.67 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.73 / defence 1.31 against Real Sociedad attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 20% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 52%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 42%, Real Sociedad 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.58. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.