Osasuna 0-2 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Madrid at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 6W 0D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Osasuna against 1.70 for Real Madrid. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Real Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 32% | Real Madrid 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.878 / defence 0.961 | Real Madrid attack 1.314 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 0.992. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Osasuna games / 59 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 42%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Real Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Osasuna 0.99 / Real Madrid 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.878 / def 0.961 | Real Madrid attack 1.314 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.362 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Real Madrid xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Real Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 29% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 2 | Real Madrid 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Real Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.31x) against Osasuna's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.51
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.24
1.25
Real Madrid xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 17D 22L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid's form line: 41W 11D 7L from 59 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 20W 3D 6L from 29 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.10 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 41W 11D 7L in their last 59 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.38 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
6
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Madrid have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 45%, Real Madrid 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 62% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Real Madrid in 31%; Osasuna have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Osasuna's recent matches and 59% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 62% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.25 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Real Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 29% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 42%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Real Madrid 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.