Osasuna 0-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 38 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 1.20 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Osasuna, 0 for Mallorca and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Mallorca 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Mallorca 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.819 / defence 1.230 | Mallorca attack 0.647 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.104. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Osasuna games / 37 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 45% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 23%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Mallorca 4.35. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 45% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 1.31 / Mallorca 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.819 / def 1.230 | Mallorca attack 0.647 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mallorca xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 45% chance of winning, Mallorca a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.82x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.17
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Mallorca xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.88 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.27 PPG, Mallorca on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 3D 13L from 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.92 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.22 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mallorca in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 50%, Mallorca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 56% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 28% of games; Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 56% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.31 xG and Mallorca 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mallorca outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Mallorca attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 45% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 23%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Mallorca 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Mallorca 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.