Osasuna 3-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Levante have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Levante away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Osasuna, 1.10 for Levante — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 32% versus Levante 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.32 xG and Levante 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.723 / defence 1.218 | Levante attack 0.775 / defence 1.580. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.125. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.580 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Osasuna games / 28 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Levante 29%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Levante 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 40% | Levante 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Levante 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Osasuna 1.32 / Levante 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.723 / def 1.218 | Levante attack 0.775 / def 1.580 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Levante xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Levante kick off?
Osasuna vs Levante kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna 3 - 1 Levante.
Where is Osasuna vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Levante part of?
Osasuna vs Levante is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Levante a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Osasuna and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Levante in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Levante (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.72) and Levante's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.78x) against Osasuna's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.41
29%
3.41
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.38
1.06
Levante xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.06 for Levante, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 9W 8D 11L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Levante's form line: 3W 10D 15L from 28 games, 0.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Osasuna are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
On the road, Levante have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.07 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Levante in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Levante away?
Osasuna's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.07 PPG; Levante away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Levante in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Osasuna
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Levante 3-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Levante?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 43%, Levante 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Osasuna) and 57% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 36% of games; Levante in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Osasuna's recent matches and 57% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Osasuna's recent games and 57% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Levante tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Levante in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Levante 3-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.32 xG and Levante 1.06 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.72 / defence 1.22 against Levante attack 0.78 / defence 1.58, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 29% | Levante 29%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Levante 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.