Osasuna 0-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 46% as Osasuna take on Espanyol.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Osasuna welcome Espanyol to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.71 xG and Espanyol 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.680. Data: 0 Osasuna games / 0 Espanyol games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 28% | Draw 46% | Espanyol 26%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.57 | Draw 2.17 | Espanyol 3.85. The draw (46%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Espanyol's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 46% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 16% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 28% | Draw 46% | Espanyol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 28% | xG Osasuna 0.71 / Espanyol 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Espanyol attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.680 • Poisson stance: Draw (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Espanyol xG
28%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Espanyol kick off?
Osasuna vs Espanyol kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Osasuna vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Espanyol part of?
Osasuna vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 28% chance of winning, Espanyol a 26% chance, and a 46% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Osasuna and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Espanyol in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.85x the league average against Espanyol's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 26.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 0-1 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
46%
2.18
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.37
0.67
Espanyol xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.18
46%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.55
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.4 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.67 for Espanyol, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Pre-Season
Espanyol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Espanyol runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Espanyol finished level at 0-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.71 xG and Espanyol 0.67 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Espanyol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 28% | Draw 46% | Espanyol 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.