Osasuna 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Celta Vigo are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 1, Celta Vigo 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Celta Vigo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 33% | Celta Vigo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.25 xG and Celta Vigo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.809 / defence 1.061 | Celta Vigo attack 1.083 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.979. Data: 61 Osasuna games / 61 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Celta Vigo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Celta Vigo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Osasuna 1.25 / Celta Vigo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.809 / def 1.061 | Celta Vigo attack 1.083 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Celta Vigo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 39% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.60
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.37
1.12
Celta Vigo xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.12 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 26L across 61 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.31 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 7D 12L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.13 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 19W 16D 26L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.33 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 43%, Celta Vigo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Osasuna and 33% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 37%; Osasuna have failed to score in 30% of games; Celta Vigo in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Osasuna's recent matches and 33% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Celta Vigo finished level at 0-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.25 xG and Celta Vigo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 33%, Celta Vigo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.31 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.