Osasuna 0-3 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.00 (Atletico Madrid). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Atletico Madrid in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Osasuna, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 38% versus Atletico Madrid 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 33% | Atletico Madrid 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.36 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.799 / defence 1.219 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.103 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.161. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Osasuna games / 24 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 32% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 41%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Madrid 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Atletico Madrid 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 32% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Osasuna 1.36 / Atletico Madrid 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.799 / def 1.219 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.103 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Atletico Madrid xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna 0 - 3 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 32% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.80x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.76
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.92
1.56
Atletico Madrid xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.56 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 8D 8L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.33 PPG, Atletico Madrid on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 2W 6D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Madrid in 62%.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.00 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Atletico Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osasuna at 50%, Atletico Madrid at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osasuna) and 83% (Atletico Madrid). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Osasuna's games and 83% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Osasuna's matches and 83% of Atletico Madrid's.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 0-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.36 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.56 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.10 / defence 1.51, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 32% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 41%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 33%, Atletico Madrid 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.