Osasuna 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Alaves — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alaves away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Alaves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Alaves trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 37% versus Alaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Alaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.71 xG and Alaves 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.861 / defence 1.253 | Alaves attack 0.761 / defence 1.741. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.068. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.741 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Osasuna games / 30 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 4.55. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Alaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Osasuna 1.71 / Alaves 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.861 / def 1.253 | Alaves attack 0.761 / def 1.741 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Alaves xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 53% chance of winning, Alaves a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.86) and Alaves's defence rating (1.74), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.05
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.73
1.02
Alaves xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
4%
25.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.02 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 8D 12L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.73 PPG from 30 outings (5W 7D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (1W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Alaves have gone 5W 7D 18L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.20 PPG; Alaves away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Alaves in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 47%, Alaves 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Osasuna) and 60% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Alaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osasuna's recent matches and 47% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Osasuna's recent games and 60% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alaves in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.71 xG and Alaves 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.74, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 53% | Draw 25% | Alaves 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Alaves 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.