Osasuna vs Alaves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alaves in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Alaves have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–5 with Alaves winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Osasuna and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alaves trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Alaves 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Alaves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.94 xG and Alaves 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.675 / defence 0.928 | Alaves attack 0.834 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.251. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Osasuna games / 45 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 32% | Draw 34% | Alaves 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Alaves 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Osasuna dominate the H2H record, yet Alaves are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 60% | Alaves 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 32% | Draw 34% | Alaves 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Osasuna 0.94 / Alaves 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.675 / def 0.928 | Alaves attack 0.834 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Alaves xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Wednesday 21 April 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 32% chance of winning, Alaves a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 5W | Draws 3 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.68) and Alaves's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
32%
3.10
34%
2.97
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.90
0.97
Alaves xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.97 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 11D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (14W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.11 PPG, Alaves on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 60%.
Last 45 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Alaves have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.55 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 68%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osasuna) and 41% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Osasuna's games and 54% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osasuna's recent games and 41% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Alaves in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.