Mallorca 4-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Villarreal travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Visit Mallorca Estadi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Villarreal — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.30 (Villarreal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Mallorca's 30% rate and Villarreal's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Villarreal and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 41% versus Villarreal 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 36% | Villarreal 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.10 xG and Villarreal 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.815 / defence 0.718 | Villarreal attack 0.890 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.979. Mallorca's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Mallorca games / 59 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Villarreal 4.76. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Villarreal's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Villarreal 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 31% | xG Mallorca 1.10 / Villarreal 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.815 / def 0.718 | Villarreal attack 0.890 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Villarreal xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Villarreal kick off?
Mallorca vs Villarreal kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Mallorca 4 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Mallorca vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Villarreal part of?
Mallorca vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 47% chance of winning, Villarreal a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Mallorca and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in?
Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.81) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.09
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.72
0.62
Villarreal xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.62 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 13D 28L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 25W 15D 19L from 59 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.14 PPG, Villarreal on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.44 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 25W 15D 19L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Villarreal away?
Mallorca's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.52 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Villarreal in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Villarreal 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Mallorca and 34% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Villarreal in 31%; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Villarreal in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mallorca's recent matches and 34% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 34% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Villarreal 4-2 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.10 xG and Villarreal 0.62 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Villarreal attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 36%, Villarreal 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Villarreal 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.