Mallorca 0-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Real Sociedad in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mallorca, 1.20 for Real Sociedad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mallorca 0W, Real Sociedad 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Real Sociedad 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 44% | Real Sociedad 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.27 xG and Real Sociedad 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.823 / defence 1.113 | Real Sociedad attack 0.699 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.129. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Mallorca games / 25 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 24%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Real Sociedad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 1.27 / Real Sociedad 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.823 / def 1.113 | Real Sociedad attack 0.699 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Real Sociedad xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Mallorca 0 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad part of?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Sociedad in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.82) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (0.70x) against Mallorca's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.19
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.15
0.88
Real Sociedad xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.88 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 8D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 4W 5D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad in 28%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Sociedad away?
Mallorca's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.42 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Real Sociedad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 42%, Real Sociedad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mallorca) and 42% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 33%; Mallorca have failed to score in 42% of games; Real Sociedad in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mallorca's recent matches and 42% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 42% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 0-2 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.27 xG and Real Sociedad 0.88 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Real Sociedad attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Real Sociedad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Real Sociedad 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.