Mallorca 0-3 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Real Madrid at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Madrid — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mallorca, 1 for Real Madrid and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–6 with Real Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Madrid in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Real Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 44% | Real Madrid 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.72 xG and Real Madrid 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.742 / defence 1.238 | Real Madrid attack 1.021 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.093. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Mallorca games / 27 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 18% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 52%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 5.56 | Draw 3.33 | Real Madrid 1.92. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Real Madrid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 18% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Mallorca 0.72 / Real Madrid 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.742 / def 1.238 | Real Madrid attack 1.021 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Real Madrid xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Mallorca 0 - 3 Real Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 18% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mallorca and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
18%
5.42
30%
3.36
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.10
1.38
Real Madrid xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.57
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.9 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.38 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca's recent record stands at 6W 8D 13L from 27 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 2L across 27 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 9W 2D 2L across 13 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.07 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 19W 6D 2L in their last 27 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.31 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Real Madrid won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Real Madrid have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Madrid see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 38%, Real Madrid 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 62% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Real Madrid in 31%; Mallorca have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mallorca's recent matches and 62% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 62% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Mallorca 0-3 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.72 xG and Real Madrid 1.38 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Real Madrid outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against Real Madrid attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 18% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 52%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Real Madrid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.