Mallorca 2-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mallorca take on Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Osasuna travel to Iberostar Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's home record at Iberostar Estadi: 1W 2D 0L from 3 La Liga appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Iberostar Estadi.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 La Liga matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.33 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 33% versus Osasuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 17% | Osasuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.94 xG and Osasuna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.810 / defence 0.911 | Osasuna attack 1.145 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 1.098. Data: 6 Mallorca games / 6 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 26% | Draw 38% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Osasuna 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 33% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Iberostar Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 26% | Draw 38% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Mallorca 0.94 / Osasuna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.810 / def 0.911 | Osasuna attack 1.145 / def 1.174 | league avg home 0.984 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Osasuna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Iberostar Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 2 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Iberostar Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 26% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.81) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.89
38%
2.65
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.08
1.15
Osasuna xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.15 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.33 PPG, Osasuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Osasuna in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Mallorca or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Osasuna in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 33%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Mallorca and 50% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osasuna in 50%; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mallorca's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Mallorca 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Mallorca 2-3 at Iberostar Estadi, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.94 xG and Osasuna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 26% | Draw 38% | Osasuna 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 17%, Osasuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.33 PPG, Osasuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.