Mallorca 1-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Visit Mallorca Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 28 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Mallorca have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Mallorca against 0.90 for Espanyol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Espanyol and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Espanyol — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Espanyol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 43% | Espanyol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.07 xG and Espanyol 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.700 / defence 0.973 | Espanyol attack 0.950 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.156. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Mallorca games / 49 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 30% | Espanyol 35%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Espanyol 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 50% | Espanyol 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 30% | Espanyol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 1.07 / Espanyol 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.700 / def 0.973 | Espanyol attack 0.950 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Espanyol xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Espanyol kick off?
Mallorca vs Espanyol kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Mallorca vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Espanyol part of?
Mallorca vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 35% chance of winning, Espanyol a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Espanyol?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Espanyol in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.70) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.95x) against Mallorca's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.38
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.14
1.07
Espanyol xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.07 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 12D 24L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol's form line: 12W 16D 21L from 49 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Mallorca against 1.06 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Espanyol have gone 2W 8D 14L from 24 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.10 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Espanyol away?
Mallorca's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.29 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Espanyol have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 46%, Espanyol 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Mallorca) and 58% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Mallorca have failed to score in 38% of games; Espanyol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mallorca's recent matches and 58% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Mallorca's recent games and 58% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Espanyol tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Espanyol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Espanyol finished level at 1-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.07 xG and Espanyol 1.07 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.97 against Espanyol attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 35% | Draw 30% | Espanyol 35%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Espanyol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.04 PPG, Espanyol 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.