Mallorca 0-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Elche encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Elche travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 6W 2D 2L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Elche — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Elche have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Mallorca are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 0, Elche 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Elche in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 43% versus Elche 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 38% | Elche 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 2.03 xG and Elche 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.039 / defence 0.840 | Elche attack 0.795 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.001. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Mallorca games / 61 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 69% | Draw 19% | Elche 11%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Elche 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Mallorca (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Elche 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 69% | Draw 19% | Elche 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 42% | xG Mallorca 2.03 / Elche 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.039 / def 0.840 | Elche attack 0.795 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Elche xG
42%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Elche kick off?
Mallorca vs Elche kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Elche.
Where is Mallorca vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Elche part of?
Mallorca vs Elche is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 69% chance of winning, Elche a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mallorca and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 2 | Elche 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Elche in?
Mallorca (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Elche (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.04) and Elche's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.13
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.70
0.67
Elche xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
1%
68.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.67 for Elche, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Elche?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 13D 29L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Elche sit at 0.84 PPG from 61 outings (12W 15D 34L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.15 PPG, Elche on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mallorca's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Elche have taken 0.60 points per game from 30 outings (4W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Elche in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 13D 29L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Elche have gone 12W 15D 34L in their last 61 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Elche away?
Mallorca's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.57 PPG; Elche away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Elche specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
3
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Elche have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Elche?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 43%, Elche 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mallorca) and 63% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games; Elche in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mallorca's recent matches and 47% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 63% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Elche tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Elche in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Elche defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Mallorca 0-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 2.03 xG and Elche 0.67 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Elche attack 0.80 / defence 1.44, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 69% | Draw 19% | Elche 11%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Elche win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Elche 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Elche's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.15 PPG, Elche 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.