Mallorca 1-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mallorca at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Visit Mallorca Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 20 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Celta Vigo have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Mallorca. A 0.70 PPG lead over Celta Vigo (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 3–4 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Celta Vigo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 38% | Celta Vigo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.16 xG and Celta Vigo 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.806 / defence 0.855 | Celta Vigo attack 0.810 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.060. Data: 55 Mallorca games / 55 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Celta Vigo 4.55. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Celta Vigo 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Mallorca 1.16 / Celta Vigo 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.806 / def 0.855 | Celta Vigo attack 0.810 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Celta Vigo xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo part of?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 45% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mallorca and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.81) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.81x) against Mallorca's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.09
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.90
0.73
Celta Vigo xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.73 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 16W 13D 26L from 55 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Mallorca against 1.15 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 8D 9L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Celta Vigo away?
Mallorca's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Celta Vigo 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mallorca and 33% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 41%; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Celta Vigo in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 30% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Celta Vigo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Celta Vigo 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.16 xG and Celta Vigo 0.73 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Celta Vigo attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 45% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Celta Vigo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.11 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.