Mallorca 1-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Visit Mallorca Estadi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico Madrid (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Atletico Madrid arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mallorca, 0 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Atletico Madrid 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 41% | Atletico Madrid 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.84 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.741 / defence 0.973 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.274 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.138. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Mallorca games / 51 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 22% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 50%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Madrid 2.00. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 60% | Atletico Madrid 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 22% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 0.84 / Atletico Madrid 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.741 / def 0.973 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.274 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Atletico Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 22% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.74x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.27x) against Mallorca's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
22%
4.45
27%
3.67
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.26
1.41
Atletico Madrid xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.8 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.41 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 13D 24L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 28W 11D 12L from 51 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 13W 4D 8L from 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.69 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 28W 11D 12L in their last 51 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.28 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Atletico Madrid have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 48%, Atletico Madrid 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Mallorca) and 60% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Mallorca have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mallorca's recent matches and 56% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Mallorca's recent games and 60% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.84 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.41 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 22% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 50%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 41%, Atletico Madrid 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.