Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Mallorca take on Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Athletic Club travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 February 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Visit Mallorca Estadi this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
Athletic Club — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Athletic Club's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mallorca, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Athletic Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 50% versus Athletic Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 41% | Athletic Club 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.67 xG and Athletic Club 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.790 / defence 1.022 | Athletic Club attack 0.712 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.124. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Athletic Club's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Mallorca games / 23 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 25% | Draw 40% | Athletic Club 34%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 4.00 | Draw 2.50 | Athletic Club 2.94. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Mallorca's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.49 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Athletic Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 25% | Draw 40% | Athletic Club 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Mallorca 0.67 / Athletic Club 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.790 / def 1.022 | Athletic Club attack 0.712 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Athletic Club xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Athletic Club kick off?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Mallorca 3 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Mallorca vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Athletic Club part of?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 25% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 34% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Mallorca and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.79) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.93
40%
2.47
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.49
0.82
Athletic Club xG
3.93
25%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.43
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 18.5 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.82 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 5W 8D 9L from 22 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 5L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 3W 6D 2L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 3W 7D 1L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.05 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.36 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Athletic Club runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Athletic Club have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 46%, Athletic Club 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Mallorca and 9% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Athletic Club in 54%; Mallorca have failed to score in 36% of games; Athletic Club in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mallorca's recent matches and 36% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Mallorca's recent games and 9% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Athletic Club 3-2 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.67 xG and Athletic Club 0.82 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Athletic Club attack 0.71 / defence 0.75, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 25% | Draw 40% | Athletic Club 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 41%, Athletic Club 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.