Mallorca 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Almeria at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Mallorca have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Almeria 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mallorca register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almeria in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 60% and Almeria 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 40% | Almeria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.42 xG and Almeria 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.950 / defence 1.152 | Almeria attack 0.675 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.220. Data: 43 Mallorca games / 5 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Almeria 4.00. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 60% | Almeria 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Mallorca 1.42 / Almeria 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.950 / def 1.152 | Almeria attack 0.675 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Almeria xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Almeria kick off?
Mallorca vs Almeria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Mallorca vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Almeria part of?
Mallorca vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 48% chance of winning, Almeria a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mallorca and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Almeria in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.37
0.95
Almeria xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.95 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.00 PPG, Almeria on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mallorca have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almeria in 60%.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Almeria in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Almeria have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Mallorca or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Almeria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Almeria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Almeria won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Mallorca 2-2 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 60%, Almeria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mallorca) and 40% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Almeria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mallorca's games and 60% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mallorca's recent games and 40% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Almeria tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Almeria in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Almeria 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.42 xG and Almeria 0.95 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Almeria attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 40%, Almeria 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almeria's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.00 PPG, Almeria 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.