Mallorca 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 3D 4L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Alaves have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alaves's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Mallorca, 0.80 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mallorca 1W, Alaves 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 44% | Alaves 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.42 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.752 / defence 1.169 | Alaves attack 0.679 / defence 1.694. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.111. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.694 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Mallorca games / 32 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Alaves 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Alaves 4.35. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Alaves 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Mallorca 1.42 / Alaves 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.752 / def 1.169 | Alaves attack 0.679 / def 1.694 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Alaves xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Alaves kick off?
Mallorca vs Alaves kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Mallorca vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Alaves part of?
Mallorca vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 49% chance of winning, Alaves a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mallorca and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.75x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.68x) against Mallorca's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.69
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Alaves xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 8D 17L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.78 PPG from 32 outings (6W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Mallorca against 0.78 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mallorca's home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.38 points per game from 16 outings (1W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.78 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 7W 8D 17L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while Alaves have gone 6W 7D 19L in their last 32 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Alaves away?
Mallorca's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.31 PPG; Alaves away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Alaves?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 38%, Alaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 56% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 44% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mallorca's recent matches and 44% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 56% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Alaves tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Alaves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Alaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Alaves 2-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.42 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against Alaves attack 0.68 / defence 1.69, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Alaves 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Alaves 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.91 PPG, Alaves 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.