Levante 2-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Villarreal make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Levante (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levante 0W, Villarreal 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2022, ended 0–5 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 52% versus Villarreal 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 52% | Villarreal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.07 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.945 / defence 1.383 | Villarreal attack 0.840 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.090. Data: 29 Levante games / 29 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 31% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 40%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Villarreal 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Villarreal 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 31% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Levante 1.07 / Villarreal 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.945 / def 1.383 | Villarreal attack 0.840 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Villarreal xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Villarreal kick off?
Levante vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Villarreal?
Levante 2 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Levante vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Villarreal part of?
Levante vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 31% chance of winning, Villarreal a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levante and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Levante and Villarreal in?
Levante (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.94x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (0.84x) against Levante's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.42
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Levante xG
Total xG
2.34
1.27
Villarreal xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levante and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Levante and 1.27 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante's recent record stands at 3W 10D 16L from 29 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 8L across 29 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levante have managed 2W 7D 5L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.66 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 3W 10D 16L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.93 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Levante or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Villarreal in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
0
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Villarreal have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Villarreal 5-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 43%, Villarreal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Levante) and 29% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 43% of games; Villarreal in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Levante's recent matches and 36% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Levante's recent games and 29% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Villarreal 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.07 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Villarreal attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 31% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 40%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 52%, Villarreal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.66. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.