Levante 2-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Levante at 40%, yet in-form Real Sociedad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levante vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Real Sociedad and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 56% versus Real Sociedad 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 53% | Real Sociedad 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.50 xG and Real Sociedad 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.142 / defence 1.497 | Real Sociedad attack 0.827 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.116. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Levante games / 34 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 34%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Real Sociedad 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 50% | Real Sociedad 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Levante 1.50 / Real Sociedad 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.142 / def 1.497 | Real Sociedad attack 0.827 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Levante (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Real Sociedad xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Levante vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Levante 2 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Levante vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Real Sociedad part of?
Levante vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 40% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Levante and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Sociedad?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 1W.
What form are Levante and Real Sociedad in?
Levante (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levante's attack rating (1.14) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.85
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Levante xG
Total xG
2.89
1.38
Real Sociedad xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Levante and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Levante and 1.38 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante's recent record stands at 5W 11D 18L from 34 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 8L across 34 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levante have managed 3W 7D 7L from 17 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 0.97 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad in 29%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Real Sociedad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 5W 11D 18L in their last 34 games (0.76 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 15W 11D 8L in their last 34 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.94 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Levante or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Real Sociedad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levante's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
1
Draws
2
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Sociedad?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Real Sociedad 2-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 47%, Real Sociedad 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Levante) and 41% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 35%; Levante have failed to score in 35% of games; Real Sociedad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levante's recent matches and 47% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Levante's recent games and 41% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Levante edge out Real Sociedad 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Real Sociedad 2-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.50 xG and Real Sociedad 1.38 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.14 / defence 1.50 against Real Sociedad attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 40% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 34%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 53%, Real Sociedad 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.