Levante 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Levante (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 2L across 7 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Osasuna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.86 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Osasuna are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Levante — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Osasuna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 47% | Osasuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.82 xG and Osasuna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.752 / defence 1.282 | Osasuna attack 0.863 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.152. Levante's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Levante games / 15 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 24% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 47%. Fair-value odds: Levante 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Osasuna 2.13. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 43% | Osasuna 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 24% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Levante 0.82 / Osasuna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.752 / def 1.282 | Osasuna attack 0.863 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Osasuna xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Osasuna kick off?
Levante vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Osasuna?
Levante 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Levante vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Osasuna part of?
Levante vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 24% chance of winning, Osasuna a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Levante and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Osasuna in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.75x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.86x) against Levante's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
24%
4.24
30%
3.38
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Levante xG
Total xG
2.09
1.27
Osasuna xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.15
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Levante and 1.27 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Levante have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 0W 7D 8L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osasuna are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (0W 5D 2L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 7D 8L in their last 15 games (0.47 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.71 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Levante or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
1
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Osasuna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Levante 3-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 43%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Levante) and 43% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 57% of games; Osasuna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Levante's recent matches and 43% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Levante's recent games and 43% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Osasuna tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levante's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 16, as Levante and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.82 xG and Osasuna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levante fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 24% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 47%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 47%, Osasuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.