Levante 0-3 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Levante at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levante and Granada CF meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 1L across 5 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Granada CF (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Levante, 0.80 for Granada CF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Levante — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Granada CF — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Granada CF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 40% | Granada CF 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.16 xG and Granada CF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.901 / defence 1.330 | Granada CF attack 0.641 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.029. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Levante games / 10 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 39% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Granada CF 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 60% | Granada CF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 39% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Levante 1.16 / Granada CF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.901 / def 1.330 | Granada CF attack 0.641 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Levante (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Granada CF xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Granada CF kick off?
Levante vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Granada CF?
Levante 0 - 3 Granada CF.
Where is Levante vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Granada CF part of?
Levante vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 39% chance of winning, Granada CF a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levante and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Granada CF in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levante's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.64x) against Levante's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
39%
2.56
36%
2.74
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Levante xG
Total xG
2.04
0.88
Granada CF xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Levante and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Levante and 0.88 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Levante have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 5D 5L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Levante against 0.80 for Granada CF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 60%.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 games (0.50 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Granada CF away?
Levante's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.80 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Levante
0
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Granada CF?
From 2 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Granada CF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Granada CF 1-4 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 60%, Granada CF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Levante and 20% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 40% of games; Granada CF in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Levante's recent matches and 40% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Levante's recent games and 20% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Granada CF tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Granada CF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Levante 0-3 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.16 xG and Granada CF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Levante fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Granada CF outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Granada CF attack 0.64 / defence 1.22, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 39% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Granada CF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 40%, Granada CF 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Granada CF's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.50 PPG, Granada CF 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.