Levante vs Getafe – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Levante at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Getafe travel to to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante at this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 1.40 PPG, Getafe 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levante, 1 for Getafe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Levante winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Getafe trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Getafe 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 48% | Getafe 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.07 xG and Getafe 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.359 / defence 1.196 | Getafe attack 0.641 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.251. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Levante games / 45 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 62% | Draw 22% | Getafe 16%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Getafe 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Levante (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Levante 50% | Getafe 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 62% | Draw 22% | Getafe 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Levante 2.07 / Getafe 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.359 / def 1.196 | Getafe attack 0.641 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Levante (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Getafe xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Getafe kick off?
Levante vs Getafe is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Getafe part of?
Levante vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 62% chance of winning, Getafe a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levante and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 2 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Levante and Getafe in?
Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Getafe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (1.36) and Getafe's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.60
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Levante xG
Total xG
3.03
0.96
Getafe xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
49.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Levante and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Levante and 0.96 for Getafe, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Getafe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Levante have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 11D 21L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Getafe's form line: 16W 8D 20L from 44 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 1.07 PPG, Getafe on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 6W 3D 12L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe in 30%.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Getafe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Getafe in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Getafe have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Getafe away?
Levante's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.38 PPG; Getafe away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2022, when Getafe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
1
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Getafe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Levante 1-0 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 57%, Getafe 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Levante) and 33% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Getafe in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Levante's recent matches and 24% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Levante's recent games and 33% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Getafe tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Getafe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.