Levante 1-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Levante welcome Espanyol to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Espanyol stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Levante) versus 0.90 (Espanyol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Espanyol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 3–4 with Espanyol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levante in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Espanyol in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Espanyol 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 52% | Espanyol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.68 xG and Espanyol 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.941 / defence 1.384 | Espanyol attack 0.833 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.137. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Levante games / 27 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 45% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 29%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Espanyol 3.45. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 30% | Espanyol 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 45% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Levante 1.68 / Espanyol 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.941 / def 1.384 | Espanyol attack 0.833 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Levante (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Espanyol xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Espanyol kick off?
Levante vs Espanyol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Espanyol?
Levante 1 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Levante vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Espanyol part of?
Levante vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 45% chance of winning, Espanyol a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Levante and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Levante and Espanyol in?
Levante (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levante's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.85
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Levante xG
Total xG
2.99
1.31
Espanyol xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Levante and 1.31 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Levante have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 3W 9D 15L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol's form line: 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Espanyol are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L).
On the road, Espanyol have gone 1W 4D 8L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.22 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 3W 9D 15L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Espanyol away?
Levante's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.92 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Espanyol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Levante's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
3
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Espanyol?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Espanyol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Espanyol 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 38%, Espanyol 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Levante) and 62% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 46% of games; Espanyol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Levante's recent matches and 62% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Levante's recent games and 62% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Espanyol tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Espanyol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 28, as Levante and Espanyol drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.68 xG and Espanyol 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Espanyol attack 0.83 / defence 1.51, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 45% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 29%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 52%, Espanyol 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.