Levante 2-2 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Atletico Madrid at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 0W 3D 1L from 4 La Liga appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have recorded 5W 3D 1L from 9 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Madrid are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 44% versus Atletico Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 33% | Atletico Madrid 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.99 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.797 / defence 1.241 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.962 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.063. Levante's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Levante games / 9 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Madrid 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Levante 50% | Atletico Madrid 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Levante 0.99 / Atletico Madrid 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.797 / def 1.241 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.962 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Atletico Madrid xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Levante vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Levante 2 - 2 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Levante vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Levante vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 27% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Levante and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Atletico Madrid in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.80) and Atletico Madrid's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
27%
3.71
32%
3.10
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Levante xG
Total xG
2.26
1.27
Atletico Madrid xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levante and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Levante and 1.27 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 0W 4D 5L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 1L across 9 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 1.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Madrid's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.75 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Levante or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
1
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Levante 0-0 Atletico Madrid.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 50%, Atletico Madrid 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Levante) and 75% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Levante's games and 75% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levante's recent games and 75% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 11, as Levante and Atletico Madrid drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.99 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 41%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 33%, Atletico Madrid 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.