Granada CF 1-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Granada CF take on Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Granada CF welcome Valencia to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 La Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Valencia's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Granada CF's 0% and Valencia's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.87 xG and Valencia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Valencia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.772 / away 0.973. Data: 1 Granada CF games / 1 Valencia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 27% | Draw 41% | Valencia 32%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.70 | Draw 2.44 | Valencia 3.12. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 0.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 27% | Draw 41% | Valencia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Granada CF 0.87 / Valencia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Valencia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.772 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Valencia xG
40%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Valencia kick off?
Granada CF vs Valencia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Valencia?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Granada CF vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Valencia part of?
Granada CF vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 27% chance of winning, Valencia a 32% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Granada CF and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Valencia in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Valencia (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.98) and Valencia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.64
41%
2.46
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Granada CF xG
Total xG
1.82
0.95
Valencia xG
3.64
27%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Granada CF and 0.95 for Valencia, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Valencia in 0%.
Defensively: Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Valencia in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Valencia in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Valencia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Valencia in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Granada CF's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Granada CF's recent matches and 0% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Granada CF's recent games and 0% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Valencia tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Valencia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF and Valencia finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 0.87 xG and Valencia 0.95 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Valencia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 27% | Draw 41% | Valencia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 0%, Valencia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Granada CF scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.