Granada CF 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Granada CF take on Real Betis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Betis make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to face Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 13 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 La Liga outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.67 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Granada CF — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Real Betis — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 33% versus Real Betis 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 33% | Real Betis 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.03 xG and Real Betis 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.941 / defence 1.082 | Real Betis attack 0.857 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.070. Data: 3 Granada CF games / 3 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 33% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 31%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Real Betis 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 33% | Real Betis 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 33% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Granada CF 1.03 / Real Betis 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.941 / def 1.082 | Real Betis attack 0.857 / def 1.143 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Real Betis xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Real Betis kick off?
Granada CF vs Real Betis kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Real Betis?
Granada CF 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Granada CF vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Real Betis part of?
Granada CF vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 33% chance of winning, Real Betis a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Granada CF and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Betis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Real Betis in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L. Real Betis (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Real Betis's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.86x) against Granada CF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
36%
2.79
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.02
0.99
Real Betis xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Granada CF and 0.99 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Granada CF against 0.67 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Real Betis in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Betis?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Real Betis have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Real Betis 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 33%, Real Betis 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Granada CF and 0% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Granada CF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Granada CF have failed to score in 67% of games; Real Betis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Granada CF's recent matches and 67% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Granada CF's recent games and 0% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Real Betis tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Granada CF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Granada CF 1-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.03 xG and Real Betis 0.99 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Real Betis attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 33% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 33%, Real Betis 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.67 PPG, Real Betis 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.