Granada CF 0-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Granada CF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to face Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Osasuna (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Granada CF. A 0.70 PPG lead over Osasuna (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Granada CF lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 67% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 48% | Osasuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.31 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 1.101 / defence 1.284 | Osasuna attack 0.640 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.120. Data: 21 Granada CF games / 21 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 44% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 25%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Granada CF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Granada CF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Granada CF 90% | Osasuna 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 44% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Granada CF 1.31 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 1.101 / def 1.284 | Osasuna attack 0.640 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Osasuna kick off?
Granada CF vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Granada CF 0 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Granada CF vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Osasuna part of?
Granada CF vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 44% chance of winning, Osasuna a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Granada CF and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Osasuna in?
Granada CF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Granada CF's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.64x) against Granada CF's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.21
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.23
0.92
Osasuna xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Granada CF and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Granada CF's recent record stands at 5W 9D 7L from 21 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 8L across 21 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Granada CF against 1.19 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.95 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 5W 9D 7L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Osasuna away?
Granada CF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.50 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Granada CF won 3-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
1
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Osasuna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Granada CF 3-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 90%, Osasuna 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Granada CF) and 30% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Granada CF's games and 30% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Granada CF's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Osasuna tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Granada CF 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.31 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Granada CF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 1.10 / defence 1.28 against Osasuna attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 44% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 25%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 48%, Osasuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 1.14 PPG, Osasuna 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.