Granada CF 1-1 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Barcelona at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Barcelona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Barcelona make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to face Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Granada CF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Barcelona's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Barcelona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barcelona away from home this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Granada CF against 1.60 for Barcelona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Granada CF 0W, Barcelona 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Barcelona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 63% and Barcelona 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 47% | Barcelona 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.41 xG and Barcelona 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 1.170 / defence 1.323 | Barcelona attack 0.972 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.109. Data: 19 Granada CF games / 19 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 37%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Barcelona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Barcelona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 89% | Barcelona 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Granada CF 1.41 / Barcelona 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 1.170 / def 1.323 | Barcelona attack 0.972 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Barcelona xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Barcelona kick off?
Granada CF vs Barcelona kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Barcelona?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Barcelona.
Where is Granada CF vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Barcelona part of?
Granada CF vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 36% chance of winning, Barcelona a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Granada CF and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Barcelona?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Barcelona 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Barcelona in?
Granada CF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Barcelona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Granada CF's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Barcelona's attack (0.97x) against Granada CF's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.72
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.43
Barcelona xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.43 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Granada CF come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 8D 6L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Barcelona sit at 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Barcelona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Barcelona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Granada CF's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Barcelona have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Barcelona's season.
Attack vs Defence
Granada CF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 1.58 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Barcelona in 63%.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Barcelona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 8W 7D 4L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Barcelona away?
Granada CF's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.56 PPG; Barcelona away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Barcelona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
4
Draws
0
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Barcelona?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Barcelona have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Barcelona 3-3 Granada CF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for Granada CF, 56% for Barcelona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Granada CF) and 33% (Barcelona).
On the defensive side: Barcelona in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Barcelona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Granada CF's games and 56% of Barcelona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Granada CF's recent games and 33% of Barcelona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Barcelona tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Barcelona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 20, as Granada CF and Barcelona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.41 xG and Barcelona 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 1.17 / defence 1.32 against Barcelona attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 36% | Draw 27% | Barcelona 37%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 47%, Barcelona 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Barcelona's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.