Girona 2-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Valladolid at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Girona) versus 1.00 (Valladolid). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 50% versus Valladolid 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Girona 25% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.57 xG and Valladolid 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.895 / defence 1.095 | Valladolid attack 0.740 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.163. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Girona games / 4 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 23%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Valladolid 4.35. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Valladolid 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Girona 1.57 / Valladolid 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.895 / def 1.095 | Valladolid attack 0.740 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Girona (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valladolid xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Valladolid kick off?
Girona vs Valladolid kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Girona 2 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Girona vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valladolid part of?
Girona vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 52% chance of winning, Valladolid a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Girona and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Valladolid in?
Girona (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D. Valladolid (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.90) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.95
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Girona xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Valladolid xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Girona and 0.94 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valladolid sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.00 PPG, Valladolid on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid in 25%.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Valladolid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Girona
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Valladolid 0-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Valladolid?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Valladolid 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Girona) and 50% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 50% of games; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 25% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Girona's recent games and 50% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Valladolid tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Valladolid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.57 xG and Valladolid 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Valladolid attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 52% | Draw 25% | Valladolid 23%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 25%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.00 PPG, Valladolid 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.